Description

This analysis provides a forecast of NEAR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 3.370727 3.895664 4.477738 5.171458 5.976366 6.881654 7.978222
2024-10-13 2.723732 3.420252 4.260281 5.349780 6.728371 8.418619 10.654459
2024-10-20 2.217124 2.991984 3.997330 5.401318 7.318360 9.854644 13.482173
2024-10-27 1.746167 2.511507 3.570955 5.151258 7.461058 10.733043 15.754560
2024-11-03 1.533112 2.337807 3.520040 5.394024 8.311286 12.714616 19.932018
2024-11-10 1.381846 2.223029 3.528212 5.716238 9.326648 15.106515 25.178687
2024-11-17 1.222867 2.065693 3.440278 5.866010 10.088811 17.225971 30.389195
2024-11-24 1.069847 1.889981 3.290245 5.881012 10.619932 19.042484 35.418045
2024-12-01 0.910237 1.675217 3.037236 5.669139 10.707703 20.088227 39.239711
2024-12-08 0.775187 1.481850 2.789959 5.421996 10.679589 20.902044 42.751485
2024-12-15 0.703489 1.395082 2.724469 5.506465 11.298336 23.046658 49.309744
2024-12-22 0.618411 1.268681 2.562982 5.372032 11.449471 24.272899 54.166308
2024-12-29 0.587890 1.251121 2.621988 5.717171 12.699612 28.079618 65.613551
2025-01-05 0.544378 1.199637 2.603570 5.895305 13.624209 31.364591 76.608946
2025-01-12 0.495100 1.127777 2.530427 5.939574 14.255858 34.112297 86.940804
2025-01-19 0.428942 1.007358 2.330764 5.656083 14.060161 34.874573 92.475599
2025-01-26 0.406938 0.986329 2.355933 5.918184 15.258581 39.291480 108.591664
2025-02-02 0.391675 0.979052 2.412531 6.269160 16.753479 44.761151 128.866563
2025-02-09 0.367092 0.944615 2.397057 6.431532 17.780795 49.197047 147.247546
2025-02-16 0.337743 0.893276 2.330750 6.446514 18.406894 52.655622 163.555115
2025-02-23 0.300601 0.815535 2.183624 6.212707 18.281080 53.948996 173.490764
2025-03-02 0.266421 0.740542 2.032337 5.940571 17.991045 54.701717 181.876819
2025-03-09 0.250030 0.712698 2.006719 6.032998 18.828142 59.060581 203.346958